A disturbance in the Caribbean is on track to develop into a tropical storm which may impact Tuscaloosa this weekend.  According to ABC 33/40 Chief Meteorologist James Spann, the disturbance could officially be upgraded to Tropical Storm Karen later in the week. Spann writes on his official weather blog, www.alabamawx.com:

"A long wave upper trough over the middle of North America will pull this north, up into the Gulf of Mexico within 24 hours, and most models bring this up to Tropical Storm Karen by Friday. The track, structure, and intensity of this will determine the amount of rain across the Southeast U.S. this weekend.

Understand the forecast confidence will remain low until a firm low level center develops, and the models can become better initialized.

TRACK: There is model spread showing landfall all the way from Morgan City, Louisiana, almost to near Cedar Key, Florida. But, the tightest cluster is around Gulf Shores and Pensacola, with a track up toward Montgomery and Atlanta. Remember, the heaviest rain is usually on the east side of the circulation center, so this idea would keep the heaviest rain south and east of cities like Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. But again, it is simply too early to forecast a specific track until we get an organized system.

How will this weather affect football this weekend? There is a chance for rain in Tuscaloosa, but mainly in the afternoon--which is good news for Bama fans. Spann writes:

"For the Alabama/Georgia State game at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday (11:21a CT kickoff), clouds will increase, but for now we will mention only a small risk of a shower during the game (best chance of widespread rain comes after the final whistle). Temperatures should be in the upper 70s at kickoff, possibly reaching the low 80s by the second half."


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